Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
